Why in news?
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released its Emissions Gap Report 2025. This report assesses the gap between greenhouse‑gas emissions expected under current national pledges and the reductions needed to meet global temperature goals. The 2025 edition warns that the world is headed toward dangerous levels of warming even if all current pledges are fully implemented.
Background
Since 2010 UNEP has produced the annual Emissions Gap Report to evaluate progress toward limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 °C or at least below 2 °C, as outlined in the Paris Agreement. It compares current and projected emissions with the levels needed to stay within these limits. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by countries are central to this assessment.
Main findings
- Warming projections of 2.3–2.5 °C: Even if countries implement their current pledges (including newly submitted 2035 targets), global average temperature by the end of this century is projected to rise by approximately 2.3–2.5 °C above pre‑industrial levels.
- Emissions rising: Global greenhouse‑gas emissions grew by 2.3 percent in 2024, reaching around 57.7 gigatonnes CO₂‑equivalent. This includes a sharp increase in emissions from land‑use change.
- Limited new pledges: Only 60 parties (representing about 63 percent of global emissions) submitted updated pledges for 2035. G20 members account for more than three‑quarters of global emissions yet have been slow to strengthen commitments.
- Approaching the 1.5 °C ceiling: The report warns that global temperatures will likely exceed 1.5 °C above pre‑industrial levels in the early 2030s. Returning to 1.5 °C by 2100 would require drastic emission cuts and widespread deployment of carbon‑removal technologies.
- Emission reductions required: To limit warming to 2 °C, global emissions must fall by about 35 percent below 2019 levels by 2035; to limit warming to 1.5 °C, they must drop by roughly 55 percent.
Implications
The findings underscore that current climate action is insufficient. The window to keep temperature rise below 1.5 °C is closing rapidly. UNEP notes that the world possesses the technology and finance needed to cut emissions but lacks political will. It calls on G20 nations to set more ambitious targets, phase out fossil fuels, invest in renewable energy and support developing countries through finance and technology transfer. Every fraction of a degree matters: limiting warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C could prevent extreme heatwaves, sea‑level rise and biodiversity loss. The Emissions Gap Report reminds policymakers that urgent and collective action is essential to safeguard a livable climate.
Source: UNEP – Emissions Gap Report 2025