Total fertility rate (TFR)

Why it matters

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) decides how a population will grow in the long run. Above the replacement level of about 2.1 children per woman, each generation is larger than the one before. Below it, each generation of children is smaller than its parents' generation, so in time the population stops growing.

Falling fertility changes what a country needs. For some decades there are fewer children and a larger share of people of working age; later the share of older people rises. Plans for schools, jobs, health care and pensions depend on these shifts. Because the TFR is reported for each bigger state and for rural and urban areas, it also shows how unevenly this change is spreading across India.

What it is

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the number of children a woman would have if she lived to the end of her childbearing years and, at each age, had children at the rate women of that age are having them this year. It summarises one year's birth rates in a single number.

The Office of the Registrar General of India, under the Ministry of Home Affairs, estimates TFR every year through the Sample Registration System (SRS). The SRS records births and deaths continuously in sample villages and urban blocks across all states and union territories.

Replacement level is about 2.1 children per woman. At that level each generation of parents is replaced by the same number of children who survive to adulthood, so in the long run the population stops growing. The 2.1 figure assumes about 105 boys born for every 100 girls and low mortality; where more boys are born, or more infants, children and mothers die, replacement level is higher.

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