Why in news?
A report titled Sliding Earth, Scattered Lives released in September 2025 described the July 2024 landslide in Wayanad district, Kerala, as a “grey rhino” event. Scientists said that years of warnings about ecological fragility and rainfall risks were ignored until disaster struck.
What is a grey rhino?
The term was coined by policy analyst Michele Wucker in her 2016 book The Gray Rhino. It refers to a highly probable, high‑impact threat that is visible and documented but often neglected until it causes major damage. Unlike “black swan” events, which are rare and unpredictable, grey rhinos are predictable and therefore actionable.
Case study: Wayanad landslide
- Predictable: Environmental reports had repeatedly warned that parts of Wayanad’s hilly terrain were unstable due to deforestation, quarrying and heavy rainfall.
- Visible: Extreme rainfall events exceeding 600 mm over 48 hours were modelled as likely triggers. Local communities had observed minor landslips in previous years.
- Neglected: Authorities delayed implementing zoning regulations, relocating vulnerable households or restricting construction on steep slopes.
- High impact: When torrential rain came in July 2024, a major landslide killed dozens, destroyed homes and disrupted livelihoods.
Significance
Recognising grey rhinos helps policymakers prioritise obvious but overlooked risks. In the context of climate change, many hazards — such as coastal erosion, floods and heatwaves — are foreseeable. By acting proactively through early warning systems, strict land‑use planning and community awareness, governments can reduce the human and economic toll of disasters.
