Monsoon rainfall finishes 12.6% short as regional water risks differ

Background

The southwest monsoon supplies much of the water used by Indian agriculture. Rain feeds crops directly and helps replenish the reservoirs, soil and groundwater used when rain stops. A weak season can therefore affect both the standing crop and the water available for later sowing. Seasonal rainfall totals are useful, but timing and location matter too. Rain arriving after a crop’s most sensitive growth stage may not undo earlier stress. Equally, a short burst of intense rain can cause flooding while other places remain dry. These differences explain why a countrywide shortfall must be read alongside regional and local conditions. As the season ends, withdrawal begins in parts of northwest India and then progresses elsewhere. IMD considers sustained dry weather, reduced moisture and the development of an appropriate circulation pattern before declaring the initial retreat. A few dry hours or a forecast of improving conditions are not enough to establish that withdrawal has occurred. Weather systems can still develop over the Bay of Bengal while the monsoon retreats elsewhere. Air flows towards a low-pressure area and can rise, cool and produce rain. If the system strengthens and moves towards the coast, rainfall risk changes along its expected path. This separate regional process explains why a withdrawal declaration is not an all-India signal to stop preparing for heavy rain.

How it developed

1. 13 April to 30 June 2026
   How it started

   IMD forecast a weak monsoon in April. June was the fifth driest since 1901.

   IMD gave its first seasonal forecast on 13 April 2026. IMD expected rain at 92 per cent of the long period average (LPA). IMD cut the forecast to 90 per cent of the LPA on 29 May 2026. The monsoon set in over Kerala on 4 June 2026. The normal date is 1 June. June rainfall was 99.5 mm against a normal of 165.3 mm. June 2026 was the fifth driest June since 1901. No low-pressure system formed in June. IMD said El Niño had hurt the June rain.

   India Meteorological DepartmentANIBusiness Standard
2. 31 July 2026
   New fact

   Rain recovered in July. IMD forecast a weak August and September.

   Heavy rain in the first week of July cut the seasonal deficit to 12 per cent by 7 July 2026. The Prime Minister's Office reviewed El Niño preparedness on 7 July 2026. The seasonal deficit stood at 13 per cent at the end of July. On 31 July 2026, IMD forecast below-normal rain for August and September together. IMD expected August rain below 94 per cent of the LPA. IMD said moderate El Niño conditions were present over the Pacific Ocean.

   India Meteorological DepartmentDown To EarthThe Tribune
3. 31 August 2026, 5 pm
   New fact

   IMD: warmest August since 1901, rain 16.3 per cent below normal

   IMD gave the August figures at a press briefing on 31 August 2026. The all-India average temperature in August was 28.01 degrees Celsius, the highest for August since 1901. The average minimum temperature, 24.36 degrees Celsius, was also a record. August rainfall was 213.3 mm, 16.3 per cent below normal. South peninsular India was 24.2 per cent short for the season. East and northeast India was 25.7 per cent short.

   PTIBusiness StandardDown To Earth
4. 31 August 2026
   New fact

   IMD expects below-normal rain in September. El Niño is strengthening.

   IMD issued its September outlook on 31 August 2026. Rain over India in September is likely to be below normal, under 91 per cent of the LPA. The September LPA is 167.9 mm. Some parts of northwest, northeast, east, east-central and southeast peninsular India may get normal or above-normal rain. Maximum temperatures are likely to stay above normal in most parts. IMD said El Niño may weaken only in February or March 2027.

   India Meteorological DepartmentIANSBusiness Standard
5. 1 September 2026
   Consequence

   Paddy sowing falls 3.35 per cent. Crops and food prices at risk.

   The farm ministry released kharif sowing data for 28 August 2026 on 31 August. Paddy stood at 414.10 lakh hectares, against 428.46 lakh hectares a year earlier. Total kharif sowing was 1,071.1 lakh hectares, against 1,091 lakh hectares a year earlier. Bloomberg reported on 1 September 2026 that rice, sugar cane and soybean face moisture stress. Food inflation was 5.52 per cent in July 2026, up from 5.32 per cent in June. Dry weather in September would hurt standing crops and the winter sowing.

   Ministry of Statistics and Programme ImplementationPTIBloomberg
6. 3 September 2026
   New fact

   WMO: El Niño is almost certain to last through February 2027

   On 3 September 2026, the World Meteorological Organization issued an El Niño update. WMO sees a nearly 100 per cent chance that El Niño will persist through February 2027. No earlier WMO update expressed such certainty. The Niño 3.4 index averaged 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal from May to July. Weekly readings reached between 2.2 and 2.6 degrees above normal by mid-August. WMO expects a very strong event that will peak near the end of 2026. WMO warned that a stronger El Niño does not determine its impact in each country. IMD remains the official source for India's local weather warnings.

   World Meteorological OrganizationBusiness Standard
7. 3 September 2026, evening
   New fact

   Monsoon rain 13 per cent short. IMD expects below-normal rain till 16 September.

   IMD issued its two-week outlook on 3 September 2026. Rain from 1 June to 2 September was 13 per cent below normal. Rain in the week to 2 September was 18 per cent below normal. For the season, east and northeast India was 24 per cent short and south peninsular India 25 per cent. Northwest India was 9 per cent short and central India 5 per cent. IMD expects below-normal rain for the country in both weeks up to 16 September. IMD called the El Niño conditions moderate, with further strengthening expected.

   India Meteorological DepartmentLivemint
8. 17 September 2026; observations through 16 September
   New fact

   A late-September improvement remains a forecast, not a completed recovery

   IMD’s two-week outlook records a 15% seasonal rainfall shortfall and expects below-normal national rainfall during 17–23 September. The following week, 24–30 September, is expected to be near normal overall. Different regions can still receive more or less rain than that national assessment suggests. Conditions may favour the start of withdrawal from parts of west Rajasthan around 19 September. IMD also expects a new low-pressure system near the Andaman Sea around that date. The system may strengthen and bring rain farther west. These are forecast developments, not confirmation of monsoon withdrawal or a cyclone making landfall.

   India Meteorological DepartmentBloomberg / Business Standard
9. 19–21 September 2026; IMD night bulletin
   New fact

   A depression forms as withdrawal reaches parts of Haryana and Punjab

   Monsoon withdrawal began over parts of west Rajasthan on 19 September. It extended into more of Rajasthan and parts of Haryana and Punjab on 21 September. Conditions favour further retreat in the northwest over the next two to three days, but that extension is not yet observed. Meanwhile, the Bay system strengthened from a well-marked low-pressure area into a depression. IMD confirmed that stage in its 5:30 pm analysis, carried in the night bulletin issued at 9:05 pm. A deep depression is forecast next, with coastal crossing expected from 23 September night to the early hours of 24 September. This is later than the earlier forecast of an approach around 23 September morning. The rainfall warnings extend inland as well as along the coast. They change immediate preparedness needs, but do not establish that flooding has already occurred. Nor do they prove that the earlier nationwide seasonal rainfall deficit has disappeared. Regional withdrawal, a strengthening weather system and the season’s cumulative rainfall are different measurements.

   India Meteorological DepartmentIndia Meteorological DepartmentBusiness Standard / PTI
10. 22 September 2026; IMD midday warning
    New fact

    The approaching system brings a wider extreme-rainfall warning

    IMD’s midday assessment places the depression about 200 kilometres southeast of Gopalpur at 8:30 am. It forecasts a west-northwestward track and further strengthening before the expected coastal crossing. The observation still identifies a depression; the stronger deep-depression category remains part of the forecast. The warning covers isolated extremely heavy rain in Odisha during 22–24 September and coastal Andhra Pradesh during 22–23 September. The same category is forecast for Chhattisgarh and Telangana during 23–24 September. Isolated refers to affected locations, not a promise that every district will receive the same amount. Local warnings therefore remain important for travel, farming and flood preparedness. IMD also warns of rough seas and strengthening winds. Fishermen should not venture into the specified westcentral Bay and adjoining waters or along the Andhra Pradesh–Odisha–West Bengal coasts through 24 September. The advice responds to forecast marine conditions; it does not depend on landfall already having occurred.

    India Meteorological DepartmentIndia Meteorological DepartmentBusiness Standard
11. 23 September 2026; IMD observation at 11:30 IST
    New fact

    Deep depression approaches coast as heavy-rain warnings continue

    IMD's National Bulletin 10 places the deep depression about 50 kilometres southeast of Kalingapatnam in its 11:30 am observation on 23 September. Its forecast takes the centre towards the coast near Kalingapatnam by the night of 23 September. The change from depression to deep depression describes the system's observed strength. The expected coastal crossing and later weakening remain forecasts. Heavy rain can continue inland even as the wind-based category weakens, so a lower category would not automatically end the rainfall risk. The bulletin warns of isolated extremely heavy rain in south Odisha and Chhattisgarh on 23–24 September, with similar warnings for coastal Andhra Pradesh. Telangana's extremely heavy rain warning covers 24–25 September. Fishermen should avoid the specified westcentral Bay and adjoining waters, and the warned coastal stretches, through 24 September. Local authorities' current advisories remain the guide for travel and protective action. This bulletin does not establish that landfall, widespread damage or school closures have occurred everywhere in the warning area.

    India Meteorological DepartmentIndia Meteorological DepartmentBusiness Standard
12. 24 September 2026; IMD observation at 05:30 IST
    New fact

    The centre is over land, but rain and rough-sea warnings remain

    IMD confirms that the system crossed southwest of Kalingapatnam overnight as a deep depression. By 5:30 am on 24 September, its centre was over north coastal Andhra Pradesh. The earlier forecast of a coastal crossing is therefore no longer merely a prediction. The next stage is expected inland movement and weakening. Residents should not interpret a lower wind category as the end of heavy-rain risks. IMD warns of extremely heavy falls in parts of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Telangana on 24 September. It also forecasts further heavy-rain spells in interior areas over the following days. The fishing warning continues until the morning of 25 September for the specified waters and coastal stretches. Local advisories remain important for travel and protective action. The bulletin describes expected hazards; it does not establish a final account of damage or losses.

    India Meteorological DepartmentBusiness Standard
13. 25 September 2026; 5:30 am observed position
    New fact

    Weaker winds do not remove the inland rainfall warning

    IMD's 25 September morning observations confirm that the system has weakened into a depression over interior Odisha and adjoining Chhattisgarh. The forecast takes it north-northwestwards, with further weakening over the next day. This changes the storm's intensity and location, not the need to watch for heavy rainfall. The department warns of isolated extremely heavy rain in Chhattisgarh on 25 September and further heavy to very heavy rain there on 26 September. Interior Odisha remains under a heavy-to-very-heavy rainfall warning on 25 September. Eastern Madhya Pradesh also faces heavy rainfall during 25–27 September, including isolated very heavy rain on the first two days. These are forecasts of possible conditions, not a count of damage already recorded. IMD identifies waterlogging, local flooding and disruption to transport among the possible impacts. Its morning bulletin also retains a warning against fishing in specified Bay of Bengal waters and along the affected eastern coasts.

    India Meteorological DepartmentBusiness Standard
14. 26 September 2026; 5:30 pm observations, 8:30 pm bulletin
    New fact

    The evening bulletin shifts attention to overnight weakening and tomorrow's rainfall

    At 5:30 pm on 26 September, the depression was centred over southeastern Uttar Pradesh, about 100 kilometres south-southeast of Lucknow. It had moved north-northwestwards at 25 kilometres per hour during the preceding six hours. That is the system's movement speed, not its wind speed: sustained surface winds were 35–45 kilometres per hour, with gusts reaching 55. IMD's forecast showed a weaker, well-marked low-pressure area by 5:30 am on 27 September. The forecast described an expected change in category, not an observation that the weakening had already happened. Rainfall warnings continued because a weaker system can still bring enough rain to disrupt transport, damage vulnerable structures and flood low-lying areas. For 27 September, IMD forecast isolated extremely heavy rainfall in Uttarakhand. Western Uttar Pradesh faces isolated very heavy rainfall, while eastern Uttar Pradesh faces isolated heavy rainfall. Northern Madhya Pradesh also faces isolated heavy rainfall. These warnings describe possible intensity at particular places, not equal rainfall across each state. The bulletin advises watching for worsening conditions and moving to safer places where necessary; later district warnings should guide local decisions.

    India Meteorological DepartmentBusiness Standard
15. 27 September 2026; 5:30 am observations, 8:30 am bulletin
    New fact

    The confirmed downgrade still leaves rain and landslide risks

    IMD's final special bulletin records north-northwestward movement before the downgrade over central Uttar Pradesh. Further weakening into a low-pressure area is forecast during the following 12 hours. That next downgrade remains a forecast in this bulletin, not an already completed observation. The advisory identifies possible waterlogging, flooding and transport disruption, with localised landslides in hilly areas. These are potential impacts, not a statement that every warned location has suffered damage. The continuing risk is why residents still need regular forecasts after the special depression bulletins stop.

    India Meteorological DepartmentBusiness Standard / PTI
16. 30 September 2026; season-end assessment
    New fact

    The full-season total shows unequal shortages

    IMD's final seasonal assessment puts national rainfall at 87% of the long-period average when rounded. Eighteen of the 36 meteorological subdivisions received normal rain. Seventeen recorded deficient rain, while Odisha received excess rain. Shortages and local flooding can therefore occur during the same national monsoon season. The figures describe June through September. Reaching the end of that accounting period does not mean monsoon withdrawal is complete everywhere. Daily weather warnings remain separate from a seasonal total. The next farming decisions depend on the water actually available locally. A field with access to irrigation may face a different risk from a rain-fed field. The rainfall report alone does not establish a percentage loss in crop production or a fixed increase in food prices.

    India Meteorological DepartmentBusiness Standard
17. 30 September 2026; October outlook
    New fact

    A national October forecast differs from the southern seasonal outlook

    For October, IMD forecasts national rainfall below 85% of the month's long-period average. This is a forecast, not rain already measured. Most regions also face above-normal temperatures, subject to the regional exceptions in the outlook. For October–December together, the southern peninsula is expected to receive normal rainfall, between 88% and 112% of its seasonal average. This covers the southern region's northeast-monsoon season. It cannot be read as a promise of normal rain in every district or as a reversal of the completed southwest-monsoon shortfall.

    India Meteorological DepartmentBusiness Standard

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