India's warmest August since 1901 as monsoon runs 13.8 per cent short
Where it stands
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) briefed the press on 31 August 2026. August 2026 was India's warmest August since records began in 1901. The all-India average temperature in August was 28.01 degrees Celsius. August rainfall was 16.3 per cent below normal. Rainfall from June to August was 13.8 per cent below normal. About 350 districts, or 47 per cent, had deficient or large deficient rain. IMD expects below-normal rain in September 2026. September rain is likely to be under 91 per cent of the long period average. IMD said strong El Niño conditions are present over the Pacific Ocean. IMD expects El Niño to strengthen further. Paddy sowing on 28 August 2026 was 3.35 per cent lower than a year earlier.
Background
The southwest monsoon brings most of India's yearly rain between June and September. IMD compares each season's rain with the long period average (LPA). The LPA for the season is about 87 cm. IMD gives a seasonal forecast in April. IMD updates the forecast at the end of May. IMD then gives an outlook for each month. Rain 20 per cent or more below normal is called deficient. A weak monsoon hurts kharif crops like rice, soybean and sugar cane. Weak farm output pushes up food prices. El Niño is warm sea water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño usually weakens the Indian monsoon.
How it developed
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13 April to 30 June 2026How it started
IMD forecast a weak monsoon in April. June was the fifth driest since 1901.
IMD gave its first seasonal forecast on 13 April 2026. IMD expected rain at 92 per cent of the long period average (LPA). IMD cut the forecast to 90 per cent of the LPA on 29 May 2026. The monsoon set in over Kerala on 4 June 2026. The normal date is 1 June. June rainfall was 99.5 mm against a normal of 165.3 mm. June 2026 was the fifth driest June since 1901. No low-pressure system formed in June. IMD said El Niño had hurt the June rain.
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31 July 2026New fact
Rain recovered in July. IMD forecast a weak August and September.
Heavy rain in the first week of July cut the seasonal deficit to 12 per cent by 7 July 2026. The Prime Minister's Office reviewed El Niño preparedness on 7 July 2026. The seasonal deficit stood at 13 per cent at the end of July. On 31 July 2026, IMD forecast below-normal rain for August and September together. IMD expected August rain below 94 per cent of the LPA. IMD said moderate El Niño conditions were present over the Pacific Ocean.
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31 August 2026, 5 pmNew fact
IMD: warmest August since 1901, rain 16.3 per cent below normal
IMD gave the August figures at a press briefing on 31 August 2026. The all-India average temperature in August was 28.01 degrees Celsius, the highest for August since 1901. The average minimum temperature, 24.36 degrees Celsius, was also a record. August rainfall was 213.3 mm, 16.3 per cent below normal. South peninsular India was 24.2 per cent short for the season. East and northeast India was 25.7 per cent short.
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31 August 2026New fact
IMD expects below-normal rain in September. El Niño is strengthening.
IMD issued its September outlook on 31 August 2026. Rain over India in September is likely to be below normal, under 91 per cent of the LPA. The September LPA is 167.9 mm. Some parts of northwest, northeast, east, east-central and southeast peninsular India may get normal or above-normal rain. Maximum temperatures are likely to stay above normal in most parts. IMD said El Niño may weaken only in February or March 2027.
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1 September 2026Consequence
Paddy sowing falls 3.35 per cent. Crops and food prices at risk.
The farm ministry released kharif sowing data for 28 August 2026 on 31 August. Paddy stood at 414.10 lakh hectares, against 428.46 lakh hectares a year earlier. Total kharif sowing was 1,071.1 lakh hectares, against 1,091 lakh hectares a year earlier. Bloomberg reported on 1 September 2026 that rice, sugar cane and soybean face moisture stress. Food inflation was 5.52 per cent in July 2026, up from 5.32 per cent in June. Dry weather in September would hurt standing crops and the winter sowing.
Why it matters for UPSC
For Prelims, know the IMD rainfall categories. Normal means minus 19 to plus 19 per cent of the LPA. Deficient means minus 20 to minus 59 per cent. Large deficient means minus 60 per cent or lower. Do not confuse a monthly outlook with the seasonal forecast. IMD forecast a below-normal season on 13 April 2026, at 92 per cent of the LPA. IMD cut the forecast to 90 per cent on 29 May 2026. For GS3, link a weak monsoon to kharif sowing, food prices and water supply.
Key terms
Sources (15)
- India Meteorological Department · official · Long Range Forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall (press release, 13 April 2026)2 Sep, 12:05 pm
- Business Standard · Monsoon reaches Kerala, three days later than usual amid El Nino scare2 Sep, 12:05 pm
- ANI · India records 5th lowest June rainfall since 1901, monsoon in Delhi likely in 2-3 days: IMD2 Sep, 12:05 pm
- India Meteorological Department · official · Outlook for the Rainfall during Second Half of the SW Monsoon Season (August–September) and Monthly Rainfall and Temperature during August, 20262 Sep, 12:05 pm
- Down To Earth · IMD Forecasts Below Normal August-September Rainfall for Most of India After July Monsoon Recovery2 Sep, 12:05 pm
- The Tribune · Monsoon deficit at minus 12% despite delayed onset, IMD tells PMO2 Sep, 12:05 pm
- Business Standard · India sees warmest August since 1901 as monsoon rainfall deficit hits 13.8%2 Sep, 12:05 pm
- PTI · India May See Below-Normal September Rainfall After Hottest August Since 1901: IMD2 Sep, 12:05 pm
- Down To Earth · Low Pressure Areas and Western Disturbances Drive Intense Rainfall in One of India's Warmest Augusts on Record2 Sep, 12:05 pm
- India Meteorological Department · official · Monthly Outlook for Rainfall and Temperature during September 2026 (press release, 31 August 2026)2 Sep, 12:05 pm
- Business Standard · IMD predicts below-normal September rains; 47% of country rain deficient2 Sep, 12:05 pm
- IANS · IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall across India in Sep amid strong El Nino conditions2 Sep, 12:05 pm
- Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation · official · Press Release of Consumer Price Index on base 2024=100 for July, 20262 Sep, 12:05 pm
- PTI · Paddy sowing falls 3.35 pc to 414.10 lakh hectares so far due to deficient rains2 Sep, 12:05 pm
- Bloomberg · Weak monsoon threatens India's key crops, raises risk of food price rise2 Sep, 12:05 pm