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India's warmest August since 1901 as monsoon runs 13.8 per cent short

English हिंदी ಕನ್ನಡ മലയാളം தமிழ் తెలుగు
First brief 2 Sep, 12:30 pm IST Updated 6 Sep, 1:52 am IST 6 developments 5 min read Latest ↓
File: Flooded fields, Punjab (July 2026)
Rohitjahnavi · CC0

Where it stands

IMD said August 2026 was India's warmest August since records began in 1901. August rainfall was 16.3 per cent below normal. Rain from 1 June to 2 September was 13 per cent below normal. About 350 districts, or 47 per cent, had deficient or large deficient rain on 31 August. IMD expects September rain below 91 per cent of the long period average. On 3 September, IMD said rain would stay below normal until 16 September. Paddy sowing on 28 August was 3.35 per cent lower than a year earlier. On 3 September, WMO said El Niño is nearly certain to last through February 2027. WMO expects a very strong event.

Background

The southwest monsoon brings most of India's yearly rain between June and September. IMD compares each season's rain with the long period average (LPA). The LPA for the season is about 87 cm. IMD gives a seasonal forecast in April. IMD updates the forecast at the end of May. IMD then gives an outlook for each month. Rain 20 per cent or more below normal is called deficient. A weak monsoon hurts kharif crops like rice, soybean and sugar cane. Weak farm output pushes up food prices. El Niño is warm sea water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño usually weakens the Indian monsoon.

How it developed

  1. 13 April to 30 June 2026
    How it started

    IMD forecast a weak monsoon in April. June was the fifth driest since 1901.

    IMD gave its first seasonal forecast on 13 April 2026. IMD expected rain at 92 per cent of the long period average (LPA). IMD cut the forecast to 90 per cent of the LPA on 29 May 2026. The monsoon set in over Kerala on 4 June 2026. The normal date is 1 June. June rainfall was 99.5 mm against a normal of 165.3 mm. June 2026 was the fifth driest June since 1901. No low-pressure system formed in June. IMD said El Niño had hurt the June rain.

    India Meteorological DepartmentANIBusiness Standard
  2. 31 July 2026
    New fact

    Rain recovered in July. IMD forecast a weak August and September.

    Heavy rain in the first week of July cut the seasonal deficit to 12 per cent by 7 July 2026. The Prime Minister's Office reviewed El Niño preparedness on 7 July 2026. The seasonal deficit stood at 13 per cent at the end of July. On 31 July 2026, IMD forecast below-normal rain for August and September together. IMD expected August rain below 94 per cent of the LPA. IMD said moderate El Niño conditions were present over the Pacific Ocean.

    India Meteorological DepartmentDown To EarthThe Tribune
  3. 31 August 2026, 5 pm
    New fact

    IMD: warmest August since 1901, rain 16.3 per cent below normal

    IMD gave the August figures at a press briefing on 31 August 2026. The all-India average temperature in August was 28.01 degrees Celsius, the highest for August since 1901. The average minimum temperature, 24.36 degrees Celsius, was also a record. August rainfall was 213.3 mm, 16.3 per cent below normal. South peninsular India was 24.2 per cent short for the season. East and northeast India was 25.7 per cent short.

    PTIBusiness StandardDown To Earth
  4. 31 August 2026
    New fact

    IMD expects below-normal rain in September. El Niño is strengthening.

    IMD issued its September outlook on 31 August 2026. Rain over India in September is likely to be below normal, under 91 per cent of the LPA. The September LPA is 167.9 mm. Some parts of northwest, northeast, east, east-central and southeast peninsular India may get normal or above-normal rain. Maximum temperatures are likely to stay above normal in most parts. IMD said El Niño may weaken only in February or March 2027.

    India Meteorological DepartmentIANSBusiness Standard
  5. 1 September 2026
    Consequence

    Paddy sowing falls 3.35 per cent. Crops and food prices at risk.

    The farm ministry released kharif sowing data for 28 August 2026 on 31 August. Paddy stood at 414.10 lakh hectares, against 428.46 lakh hectares a year earlier. Total kharif sowing was 1,071.1 lakh hectares, against 1,091 lakh hectares a year earlier. Bloomberg reported on 1 September 2026 that rice, sugar cane and soybean face moisture stress. Food inflation was 5.52 per cent in July 2026, up from 5.32 per cent in June. Dry weather in September would hurt standing crops and the winter sowing.

    Ministry of Statistics and Programme ImplementationPTIBloomberg
  6. 3 September 2026
    New fact

    WMO: El Niño is almost certain to last through February 2027

    On 3 September 2026, the World Meteorological Organization issued an El Niño update. WMO sees a nearly 100 per cent chance that El Niño will persist through February 2027. No earlier WMO update expressed such certainty. The Niño 3.4 index averaged 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal from May to July. Weekly readings reached between 2.2 and 2.6 degrees above normal by mid-August. WMO expects a very strong event that will peak near the end of 2026. WMO warned that a stronger El Niño does not determine its impact in each country. IMD remains the official source for India's local weather warnings.

    World Meteorological OrganizationBusiness Standard
  7. 3 September 2026, evening
    New fact

    Monsoon rain 13 per cent short. IMD expects below-normal rain till 16 September.

    IMD issued its two-week outlook on 3 September 2026. Rain from 1 June to 2 September was 13 per cent below normal. Rain in the week to 2 September was 18 per cent below normal. For the season, east and northeast India was 24 per cent short and south peninsular India 25 per cent. Northwest India was 9 per cent short and central India 5 per cent. IMD expects below-normal rain for the country in both weeks up to 16 September. IMD called the El Niño conditions moderate, with further strengthening expected.

    India Meteorological DepartmentLivemint

Why it matters for UPSC

GS1 · Indian monsoon and El NiñoGS3 · Agriculture and food securityGS1 · Climatology

For Prelims, know the IMD rainfall categories. Normal means minus 19 to plus 19 per cent of the LPA. Deficient means minus 20 to minus 59 per cent. Large deficient means minus 60 per cent or lower. Do not confuse a monthly outlook with the seasonal forecast. IMD forecast a below-normal season on 13 April 2026, at 92 per cent of the LPA. IMD cut the forecast to 90 per cent on 29 May 2026. For GS3, link a weak monsoon to kharif sowing, food prices and water supply.

Key terms

Long period averageThe long period average (LPA) is the average rain of a place over many years. IMD now uses the years 1971 to 2020. The LPA for the whole monsoon season is about 87 cm for India. The LPA for September is 167.9 mm. IMD states each forecast as a share of the LPA.
El NiñoEl Niño is a warming of the sea surface in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. El Niño usually weakens the Indian monsoon. Not every El Niño year is a drought year in India. IMD said on 31 August 2026 that strong El Niño conditions are present. IMD expects El Niño to weaken only in February or March 2027.
Low-pressure systemA low-pressure system is an area of low air pressure. Moist air flows in. The air rises. Rising air gives rain. In the monsoon, low-pressure systems form over the Bay of Bengal. The systems move west across India. The systems bring heavy rain. No low-pressure system formed in June 2026. In August 2026, low-pressure systems were active for 26 days.
Deficient and large deficientIMD compares rain with the long period average for a district, a state or the country. Rain within 19 per cent of the average is normal. Rain 20 to 59 per cent below the average is deficient. Rain 60 per cent or more below the average is large deficient. On 31 August 2026, about 47 per cent of districts were deficient or large deficient.
Kharif cropsKharif crops are sown with the monsoon in June and July. Farmers harvest kharif crops from September to November. Rice, maize, soybean, groundnut and cotton are kharif crops. Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh got below-normal rain this season. On 28 August 2026, paddy sowing stood at 414.10 lakh hectares. Paddy sowing was 428.46 lakh hectares a year earlier.
Indo-Gangetic plainsThe Indo-Gangetic plains are the flat lands along the Indus and Ganga rivers. The plains cover Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal. Farmers on the plains grow much of India's rice and wheat. In August 2026, most rain from low-pressure systems fell over the Indo-Gangetic plains. Other regions got much less rain.
Sources (19)
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